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Detroit Lions GM Martin Mayhew spoke to the media at the NFL combine about his soon to be a free agent (if he's not given the franchise tag) defensive end, Cliff Avril.

Mayhew said all the right things.

Dave Brikett quote Mayhew in the Freep:

“It certainly is not our desire to franchise Cliff,” Mayhew said during breakfast with beat reporters at the NFL combine. “We don’t want to do that, so we’re hopeful we’ll get something long-term done. I think it’s the best thing for him and for us. So that’s not a good option.

“Franchising him is not a good option for us. The only worse option is playing without him.”

Franchising may not be a good option...but it is definitely an option. One which will be used if it means keeping Avril a Lion. 

If given a choice between losing one of their best defenders in free agency or ticking him off by franchising him, but keeping Avril on the roster...the Lions will tick him off 100 times out of 100. Regardless, Avril will remain ticked off...until he gets paid, and he will get paid.

So what will ultimately happen? What ALWAYS happens in NFL contract negotiations involving the franchise tag. Drawn out drama, then a long-term contract agreement. The process is a long one, but it's one I've seen before...

1. There will be much posturing, which has already begun from the Avril camp. Mayhew says all the right things (see above), including what Avril wants to hear about a long-term deal getting done. But at the same time, Mayhew knows he has the upper hand, having the franchise tag at his disposal.

2. There will come a point where Avril will clam up, and his representatives will do all the posturing. Avril's agent will complain long and loud to the media the Lions are disrespecting his client by even considering the use of the franchise tag.  Mayhew will say nothing. Contract negotiations continue.

3. With the free agency deadline approaching, the Lions finally stick the franchise tag on Avril, because they aren't stupid. 25 year old defensive ends with double digit sack talent don't just grow on trees or fall into your lap in every draft.

4. After being tagged, knowing he's going to be a Lion mo matter what, Avril and his agent continue to threaten a holdout, using the media as a mouthpiece. Why?  It's the only negotiating ploy they have left at their disposal. Fans proceed to bitch about Avril's threatened holdout, because they don't care if his career could end on any play and conveniently forget this is his best chance to make serious NFL money. You know, because how much money does anyone really need? At the same time, the Lions and Avril's representation continue to negotiate. 

5. Contract talks between Avril and the Lions continue through the summer, with Avril's agent also negotiating via the media. Fans become even more incensed over a a Lion "who is paid big money to play a kid's game," because "they would play for free!"

6. Training camp is quickly approaching, all signs point to the Lions and Avril are at a stalemate, as negotiations look to have broken down. Fans start to panic. Mlive forum members predict the Lions defense will give up 500 yards passing a game. Bleacher Report runs a post featuring a slideshow with 35 DE options for the Lions.

7. Training camp starts. Avril doesn't report. It's a holdout! Fans lose their minds, curse the day the Lions drafted Cliff Avril. Detroit columnists write self-righteous diatribes about the ugly business of sports. But behind the scenes, after a cooling off period, contract talks are back underway and are nearing a conclusion.

8. A few days into camp, the Lions announce they have signed Cliff Avril to a long-term contract with a significant signing bonus.

9.  Avril tells the media he's thrilled to be a Lion for the next several seasons, and was confident a deal would get done. Fans claim they knew Avril and the Lions would come to a long-term agreement. Ain't Lions fandom grand? PLAYOFFS, HERE WE COME!

10. The Lions also announce the restructuring of Calvin Johnson's massive contract, which will be the most important move the Lions make in the off season.

The above scenario, one commonly seen in every NFL city, is why I'm not going to worry about the status of Cliff Avril. The contract will ultimately work itself out.

This Avril situation is nothing older Lions fans haven't seen in the past. Just look back over a decade ago to the Lions franchise tagging DE Robert Porcher. It's damn near deja vu all over again. Much like what I expect to go down with Avril, the negotiations between Porcher and the Lions were acrimonious as all Hell, until they weren't...once Porcher signed a long-term contract.

I can't emphasize it enough. In the NFL, history always, always, always repeats itself.